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Post-Election Democrats

Coda: Clumsy and Half-hearted

In this coda to my essay on Post-Election Democrats, I want to briefly talk about how the Democrats have already fumbled the ball. It's only been a month since the election, but we've already seen several critical errors that could have and should have been easily avoided. Before I delve into specifics, however, I want to first re-visit a point I made last May:

Whatever you may think of its actual content, the Contract With America was undeniably a brilliant political strategy. It quickly and succinctly, on a single sheet of paper, summed up the entire philosophy of the Republican party. Because of its simplicity it could be photocopied, e-mailed, faxed, televised, discussed, bullet-pointed, powerpointed, and virally disseminated in hundreds of different ways. In an era where the media only wants to talk about how a political party is going to say something and rarely about what is actually being said, the Contract With America brilliantly combined the medium with the message: Whenever a newspaper wanted to discuss the Contract With America, for example, it would inevitably reproduce its ten bullet points.

I also want to quote a point I made earlier in this essay: 

The Democrats can beat the Republicans in two ways:

1. They can actually get their legislation passed. By doing so, they'll not only be delivering what the American people want, they'll also be demonstrating that they're capable of effective and efficient governance. They'll have demonstrated that they'll keep their promises and do exactly what they were elected to do, creating a strong argument that they should be returned to power in 2008.

2. They can force President Bush to veto their legislation. By forcing Bush to veto positive legislation that the majority of Americans want, they'll demonstrate that the Republicans are out of touch with the nation and create a strong argument that they should be returned to power in 2008.

Really, you can boil this entire strategy down to two bullet-points:

1. Clearly and concisely communicate your goals for making America better and stronger.

2. Quickly and efficiently pass the legislation necessary to make those goals a reality.

 

Six for '06 vs. 100 Hours vs. ???

I had previously spoken about the Six for '06 agenda the Democrats put on the table during the 2006 campaign season. Here's how that legislative agenda was announced in press release on June 16th, 2006:

SIX FOR '06 (June 2006)

1. MAKE HEALTH CARE MORE AFFORDABLE. Fix the prescription drug program by putting people ahead of drug companies and HMOs, eliminating wasteful subsidies, negotiating lower drug prices and ensuring the program works for all seniors; invest in stem cell and other medical research.

2. LOWER GAS PRICES AND ACHIEVE ENERGY INDEPENDENCE. Crack down on price gouging; eliminate billions in subsidies for oil and gas companies and use the savings to provide consumer relief and develop American alternatives, including biofuels; promote energy efficient technology.

3. HELP WORKING FAMILIES. Raise the minimum wage; repeal tax giveaways that encourage companies to move jobs overseas.

4. CUT COLLEGE COSTS. Make college tuition deductible from taxes; expand Pell grants and cut student loan costs.

5. ENSURE DIGNIFIED RETIREMENT. Prevent the privatization of Social Security; expand savings incentives; ensure pension fairness.

6. REQUIRE FISCAL RESPONSIBILITY. Restore the budget discipline of the 1990s that helped eliminate deficits and spur record economic growth.

And here's how it appears at "News & Views" on www.housedemocrats.gov, the top result when you do a Google search for "Six for '06" (ironically, if you use the search function at www.housedemocrats.gov for the same term, there are no search results):

SIX FOR '06 (Today)

REAL SECURITY AT HOME AND OVERSEAS
Reclaim American leadership with a tough, smart plan to transform failed Bush Administration policies in Iraq, the Middle East and around the world. Require the Iraqis to take responsibility for their country and begin the phased redeployment of US forces from Iraq in 2006. Double the size of Special Forces to destroy Osama Bin Laden and terrorist networks like al Qaeda. Rebuild a state-of-the-art military capable of projecting power wherever necessary. Implement the bipartisan 9/11 Commission proposal to secure America’s borders and ports and screen 100% of containers. Fully man, train, and equip our National Guard and our police, firefighters and other first responders. Honor our commitments to our veterans.

BETTER AMERICAN JOBS - BETTER PAY
Prohibit the Congressional pay raise until the nation’s minimum wage is raised. End tax giveaways that reward companies for moving American jobs overseas.

COLLEGE ACCESS FOR ALL
Make college tuition deductible from taxes, permanently. Cut student loan interest rates. Expand Pell Grants.

ENERGY INDEPENDENCE - LOWER GAS PRICES
Free America from dependence on foreign oil and create a cleaner environment with initiatives for energy-efficient technologies and domestic alternatives such as biofuels. End tax giveaways to Big Oil companies and enact tough laws to stop price gouging.

AFFORDABLE HEALTH CARE - LIFE-SAVING SCIENCE
Fix the Medicare prescription drug program, putting seniors first by negotiating lower drug prices and ending wasteful giveaways to drug companies and HMOs. Promote stem cell research that offers real hope to millions of American families who suffer from devastating diseases.

RETIREMENT SECURITY AND DIGNITY
Stop any plan to privatize Social Security, in whole or in part. Enact real pension reform to protect employees’ financial security from CEO corruption and mismanagement, including abuse of the bankruptcy laws. Expand personal savings incentives. 

And here's how the agenda for the first 100 hours appears, also at www.housedemocrats.gov:

In the first 100 hours:

We will start by cleaning up Congress, breaking the link between lobbyists and legislation and commit to pay-as-you-go, no new deficit spending.

We will make our nation safer and we will begin by implementing the recommendations of the independent, bipartisan 9/11 Commission.

We will make our economy fairer, and we will begin by raising the minimum wage. We will not pass a pay raise for Congress until there is an increase in the minimum wage.

We will make health care more affordable for all Americans, and we will begin by fixing the Medicare prescription drug program, putting seniors first by negotiating lower drug prices. We will also promote stem cell research to offer real hope to the millions of American families who suffer from devastating diseases.

We will broaden college opportunity, and we will begin by cutting interest rates for student loans in half.

We will energize America by achieving energy independence, and we will begin by rolling back the multi-billion dollar subsidies for Big Oil.

We will guarantee a dignified retirement, and we will begin by fighting any attempt to privatize Social Security.

The first thing you should notice is that the Six for '06 platform rolled out six months ago doesn't match the current Six for '06 platform. And this isn't just a case of the verbiage being tweaked or the specific policies being adjusted or expanded (although those efforts should have been approached only with great care and consideration), the content itself has significantly changed: In June, the Six for '06 included a pledge to practice fiscal responsibility. Today, that pledge has been dropped and replaced with a security agenda.

The next thing you should notice is that the 100 Hours agenda doesn't match either of the Six for '06 platforms. Now, obviously, the 100 Hours agenda shouldn't include everything in the Six for '06 platform: It's a prioritized list of the first things the Democrats want to accomplish, not a comprehensive list of everything they want to accomplish. But why are there items on the 100 Hours agenda that don't appear on the Six for '06 platform? You'll note that the fiscal responsibility pledge (dropped from the most recent version of the Six for '06) appears along with the pledge to implement the recommendations of the 9/11 Commission (absent from the original version of the Six for '06). And there's also a pledge to break " the link between lobbyists and legislation" which doesn't appear on either Six for '06 platform. How can something be important enough that you want to accomplish it in the first 100 hours of the new session, but not important enough to include on what would appear to be a definitional document for your party?

The last thing to notice are the items on the 100 Hour agenda which cannot be accomplished in the first 100 hours of the new session. I'm not talking about stuff that's going to be politically intractable, I'm talking about long-term pledges of conduct. For example, that pledge to break "the link between lobbyists and legislations". Well, you can certainly break that link on any legislation passed in the first 100 hours. But the promise only really means anything if you continue to abide by it well after the first 100 hours is long gone. And accomplishing "no new deficit spending" is a laudable goal, but presumably the Democrats are not going to try to pass a comprehensive budget in the first 100 hours of the new session. So that really just boils down to a pledge that they're going to pledge to do something. And then round that out with the promise to "fight any attempt to privatize Social Security" -- which is, apparently, a pledge to NOT do something during the first 100 hours of the new session. It would even seem to imply that privatizing Social Security is an option they'll be putting back on the table once those first 100 hours is up. This is, of course, absurd, but demonstrates the problem here:

This is just plain sloppy.

The Democrats really had an opportunity here to present a simple, unified, crystal-clear statement of their principles supported by a listing of specific goals. Backing that up by focusing on a core subset of those goals as a blitzkrieg agenda for the first 100 hours of the new session was, frankly, a stroke of genius.

Instead, they loused it up. What should have been a definitive document has instead been multiply revised and rendered inconsistent. What should have been a clear-cut list of achievable goals was muddied up with fuzzy promises. 

What Should Have Happened: First, the Six for '06 should not have been revised. The whole point of issuing such a document is to have a definitive platform. Changing it mid-stream misses the whole point.

That being said, I think the addition of the security proposals (most notably the implementation of the 9/11 Commission recommendations) was a good idea. It's definitely something that needs to be done. One way they could have achieved that without compromising the original Six for '06 would have been to carefully roll out a Seven for '07 at some point that would have included the security proposals as part of a general expansion of the Six for '06 to reflect the full legislative agenda the Democrats would pursue in the new year.

Second, the 100 Hour agenda should have been a subset of clear-cut, concrete goals drawn directly from the Six for '06 (or Seven for '07). It should have been possible to literally treat the 100 Hour agenda as a checklist.

What Can Be Done: To understand what a golden opportunity this was, you simply need to look at the fact that it can still be salvaged despite its clumsy handling to date. The concept is that strong and the ability to communicate a clear message to the American people that palpable. Imagine if, 100 hours into the new session, Nancy Pelosi can address the nation and say:

"This was our 100 Hour agenda. We promised to break the link between lobbyists and legislation, and we have removed the lobbyists from the cloak room and given the government back to the people. We promised to eliminate deficit spending and restore the budget discipline of the 1990s, and despite the Republican failures we inherited, we have established spending plans which will allow us to achieve a deficit-free budget this year.

We have implemented the independent, bipartisan recommendations of the 9/11 Commission, making America safe again. We have raised the minimum wage as the first step in making our economy a fairer place for all Americans. We have made it possible for Medicare to negotiate with drug companies to reduce the burden placed on seniors. We have legalized stem cell research in an effort to save and improve millions of lives.

For our students we have made education more affordable by cutting interest rates, and we promise to do more.

For our security and prosperity we have rolled back the multi-billion dollar subsidies for Big Oil.

We have made promises and we have kept them. And this is merely the beginning of what we can achieve by listening to what the American people need.

In addition to all the positive good those policies will do for this country, imagine the political effect of such a speech: The Democrats would establish themselves authoritatively as efficient, effective, and in-touch with the dreams and aspirations of the American people.

I would also argue that, in that same speech, Pelosi should go on to roll out a Seven for '07 that establishes the Democrats' legislative goals for the rest of the year. And at the end of the year, the party's leaders can stand up again and talk about what they've achieved and what the Republicans have stopped them from achieving. And then they can roll out their Eight for '08 and go into the elections with a full head of steam. Handled correctly, such legislative agendas could replace the party platforms (which have become bloated and pointless) as a way of clearly communicating the party's goals and values to the electorate.

 

Pelosi's Appointments

When Pelosi spoke after the Democratic victory on November 7th one of the things she said was, "We will make this the most honest, ethical, and open Congress in history."

This was an important promise which was also incorporated into the 100 Hours agenda. It distinguished between the corruption of a Republican congress more interested in special interests than the interests of the American people and the new era which was beginning.

It was meant to be a fresh start. Unfortunately, Pelosi -- through two questionable decisions -- managed to muddy the carpet before the Democrats even made it through the door.

The first poor decision came when Pelosi publicly backed the scandal-tainted John Murtha to become the Majority Leader of the House. Even ignoring Murtha's video-taped connection to the ABSCAM scandal, it was unusual for a Speaker to publicly back any candidate for the position, and there was has been a lot of speculation about what Pelosi's actual motivation for doing so was. Whatever the motivation was, however, is largely irrelevant: Pelosi decided to make essentially her first public action as the leader of a Democratic majority the backing of a scandal-tainted candidate.

This is not the way to convince the American electorate that you're planning to run the "most honest, ethical, and open Congress in history".

Heck, the only way she could have made it worse would be if she decided to place another scandal-tainted Democrat in the limelight...

... which, of course, she did almost immediately by publicly announcing that Jane Harman would not be the chair of the House Intelligence Committee. Passing over Harman was not, in itself, the problem. The problem was that the next most-senior democrat on the Intelligence Commitee was Alcee Hastings, who, as a federal judge, had been impeached by the House and convicted by the Senate in 1988 for taking a $150,000 bribe.

Although, to my knowledge, Pelosi never confirmed that she was considering Hastings for the position, she had effectively made him the only apparent candidate for the position.

The bungles here are readily apparent:

It was unnecessary for Pelosi to publicly announce that she was passing over Harman before she had a final candidate in mind.

It was unnecessary for Pelosi, having publicly announced that she was passing over Harman, to not immediately rule out the scandal-tainted Hastings as a potential chairman.

This is just common sense: If one of your campaign pledges is the most ethical congress in history, you can't have bribe-takers as congressional leaders and committee chairmen. The question can't be whether or not you're going to allow that to happen; the question can only be how you're going to stop that from happening.

Murtha was defeated in his bid to become Majority Leader and Pelosi eventually nominated Silvestre Reyes -- a highly qualified Texas Democrat with essentially unimpeachable credentials and policy positions (at least on intelligence issues) that mirrored the party's politics and the beliefs of the American people -- to chair the Intelligence Committee.

But the damage had already been done: The story had changed from, "Nancy Pelosi is ready to lead the most honest, ethical, and open Congress in America." It had become, "Nancy Pelosi supports corrupt Democrats for key leadership positions."

What Should Have Happened: This one's easy. Pelosi should have refrained from endorsing Murtha. And she should have either refrained from publicly announcing the Harman was being passed over as Chairman of the Intelligence Committee or she should have immediately announced that Hastings was also being ruled out as a candidate at the same time that she announced that Harman was not being considered.

What Can Be Done: In the short term, basically nothing. You don't get a second chance to make a first impression and Pelosi blew this one badly.

In the long term, however, the Democrats can actually follow through on their promise and make the 110th Congress the most honest, ethical, and open Congress in history while passing reform legislation to help guarantee that future congresses will follow in their footsteps. If they can do that, then Pelosi's dreadful fumbling of this issue will become an unimportant footnote.

 

Half-Hearted Tax Reform

One of the most promising policy ideas I heard floated just after the election was that Bush's tax cuts for the ultra-rich would be rolled back and the resulting revenues used to balance the budget and fund a middle class tax cut.

The beauty of such a proposal is that it finally neuters a 25 year cycle of a Republican strategy aimed at crippling the middle class in favor of the ultra-rich. The cycle looks like this (you can ignore this segue if you like):

SEGUE ABOUT VOODOO ECONOMICS

1. The Republicans cut taxes for the richest Americans (occasionally throwing in much smaller, almost insignificant, cuts for the upper middle class as a way of deflecting criticism).

2. They justify these cuts through the voodoo of trickle-down economics, claiming that tax receipts will actually increase due to economic growth supposedly spurred on by the tax cuts.

3. The massive deficit freshly created by these irresponsible tax cuts surges out of control.

4. After a few years, the economy has grown the same way it always does. It hasn't grown any faster than it does during years when the Republicans aren't handing off huge tax cuts to their rich pals. In fact, its frequently grown at a slower pace than it had before the massive tax cuts.

5. Tax receipts will still be down and the deficit will still be huge. The Republicans will then gut the funding of programs targeted at helping the poor and middle class (but will continue passing earmarks for their rich pals). Because they've cut spending, the deficit will shrink (but not be eliminated).

6. The Republicans will then declare victory: The economy has grown. The deficit has been reduced. Clearly the voodoo economics have worked! (The fact that the economy has grown at a slower rate than it would have otherwise and the deficit is still larger than it would be otherwise is irrelevant. It's the same tactic that lets the Bush White House slash a program's budget by $45 million; raise it by $10 million a little later; and then claim that they've increased funding for the program.)

7. Eventually, the budget-conscious and fiscally-responsible Democrats will come to power, pass new taxes, and manage to balance the budget. The Republicans will decry this fiscal responsibility as "big government" and "tax-and-spend".

Rinse. Wash. Repeat.

For example, let's take a look at the Clinton and Bush presidencies. In 2000, during Clinton's last year in office, total tax receipts (excepting Social Security taxes) stood at $1,211 billion. In 2005, those same tax receipts stood at $1,205 billion. Tax receipts were still down, even after 5 full years of Bush's voodoo economics. And those numbers aren't even adjusted for inflation: The actual difference, in real dollars, is even larger.

You see a similar failure when you look at the actual growth rate of the economy. During Clinton's years in the White House (1993-2000), the GDP grew at an average rate of 5.6%. During Bush's presidency (2001-2005), that growth has only been 4.9%. (In chained 2000 dollars, the average rates are 3.7% and 2.4%, respectively. You'll notice the point remains unchanged.)

Conclusion: Voodoo economics don't work. It's just Republican propaganda designed to justify raping the middle class to benefit the rich.

The point here is that, for the past 25 years, whenever the Democrats have tried to practice fiscal responsibility or make the economy fairer for the middle class, the Republicans have trotted out their "tax-and-spend" and "big government" talking points. These talking points have no relationship to reality (as we've seen), but they've tested great in the focus groups and the Republicans have spent three decades repeating them until you start subconsciously believing them without really thinking about it.

But you render those mindless little soundbites useless if you simultaneously repeal unpopular tax cuts given to the rich while providing much needed tax relief to the middle class. Republicans can't just accuse you of "raising taxes" while hoping that no one looks too closely at the details, because you can just say: "No, we're cutting taxes for the middle class. This is the difference between Democrats and Republicans. Democrats believe that the middle class is the heart of America's strength. Republicans believe that the nation should belong only to the ultra-rich."

And the Republicans don't have an answer to that because there isn't an answer to that: It's just plain, simple truth.

This is a great proposal because it not only enacts meaningful, positive change for the nation's economic policy, but because it also allows the Democrats to clearly demonstrate their middle class values while revealing that the Republicans are owned by their rich special interests.

But Charles Rangel, the future chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee (which would be in charge of tax policy), has recently been backing off this proposal: "It's dumb politics to do it, especially when it's going to get vetoed."

This is unfortunate. Rangel is not only throwing what could have been a very effective piece of legislation into the trash bin, he's also doing it for a completely incomprehensible reason.

What Can Be Done: The Democrats simply have to understand that, just because George W. Bush is going to veto a piece of legislation which is popular with the American people, it doesn't mean that you shouldn't force him to veto it. Quite the contrary: It means you should almost certainly force him to veto it.

Don't be the party that failed to take action. Be the party that tried to take action and would have succeeded if only the out-of-touch and cold-hearted Republicans hadn't stayed loyal to their rich friends and special interests and stopped you.

That's how you build a case for sweeping the Republicans completely out of power in 2008.

 

Concluding Thoughts

After the 1994 Republican Revolution, the Democratic Party -- after more than half a century of essentially total domination in Congress -- reacted like the bully who's gotten his nose bloodied for the first time: They ran away and cowered in the corner.

The only Democrat who didn't run away and hide in the corner was President Clinton, who faced off against the most irrationally hostile Congress in the history of the country and won time and time again.

But the rest of the party ran away and hid, and -- predictably -- they just kept right on losing elections.

Ideologically, they were discordant: The Republicans had slanderously destroyed their principles by hanging erroneous buzzwords on them. Even the term "liberal" itself was turned into a curse word. But rather than fighting back and reclaiming their principles -- that liberty is important; that equal opportunity is the root of the American dream; that government is the place where society comes together to solve problems too large for any individual to cope with -- the Democrats splintered in a mad race for a muddy center.

Politically, they were dysfunctional: Party machinery atrophied and died. Despite the fact that, in many states, they had only just lost control of the state houses and governorships, they essentially gave those states up as forever lost.

It was only with the 2006 election cycle that we saw some of these trends reversing. Ideologically, President Bush and other extremists had so compromised the public principles claimed by the Republican party that the Democrats garnered the courage to proclaim (however tentatively) that the Emperor had no clothes. They started to find some identity for themselves, and at the same time Howard Dean's 50 State Strategy reinvigorated party infrastructure and forced the Republicans to actually fight a truly national campaign for the first time in over a decade.

But there are still plenty of Democrats who still haven't learned the lesson of their failure: They still think that the key to success is to try to find some sort of "Republican-lite" ideal. They still think that the best way to win a national election is to pick what parts of the nation you want to win and ignore the rest. If that section of the party is allowed to assert itself over the next two years, then the Democrats will go right back to being a minority party in 2008. (And they'll deserve it.)

If the Democrats are going to be successful, they're going to have to remember their principles. They're going to have to stand by them. And they're going to have to fight for them.

If they do that, then they can't lose. Because if you're fighting for liberty and equality and the hope that tomorrow can be made better than today, it doesn't matter if you lose some political battles over the next two years. In fact, those losses will only make you stronger: Because the American people will see what you're fighting for. And they'll see who's standing in your way.

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